Projecting the College Football Playoff top 12 at midseason - ESPN

Heather Dinich Oct 18, 2026, 02:08 AM ET

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There's only one undefeated team left in the entire Big Ten and SEC combined.

UCLA, which won three total games last season, is 6-0 with a new home in the top 10 -- for now. With the way this campaign is going, just give it a minute. Five of the top seven teams in the Associated Press poll lost Saturday, shaking up the playoff picture and unveiling yet another new No. 1. It was the most losses by the AP's top seven on a single day in the poll's history, which stretches back to 1936.

From start to finish Saturday, Week 7 went down to the wire, with Texas and Alabama adding second losses to their résumés, Georgia falling at home to Auburn and Notre Dame coming up short in its first real test of the season at BYU.

With only two Saturdays remaining until the College Football Playoff selection committee reveals its first ranking on Nov. 3, the playoff picture remains muddled with no clear-cut No. 1 team asserting itself above the pack.

So, who has earned the top spot at the midpoint of the season?

Based on historical knowledge and an understanding of the criteria and protocol, here's a look at what the committee might do if the rankings were today.

1. Miami Hurricanes (6-0)

Why they could be here: Georgia lost. Notre Dame lost. And the Hurricanes eked out a double-overtime win at home against rival Florida State in a too-close-for-comfort outing against what is now a four-loss team. While Miami lacks a true statement win, it does have three road victories, including two against ACC teams above.500 in Wake Forest and Clemson. The Sept. 18 triumph at Wake Forest will get more credit in the committee meeting room than it does from the average college football fan, as the Demon Deacons have won four straight and are on a path to see Miami again in the ACC title game. Miami's undefeated record and statistical dominance continue to outweigh its average schedule strength, with Saturday's narrow decision being the lone time this season the Canes didn't prevail by at least 13 points.

Why they could be lower: Ohio State's win at Indiana on Saturday is better than any win Miami has on its résumé.

Need to know: Even if Miami loses at Notre Dame on Nov. 7, it would still be a CFP team; but where it gets tricky is if the Canes lose that game and don't win the ACC title. The ACC champion is guaranteed a spot. But would a two-loss runner-up that dropped its only two games against ranked opponents finish in the top 12?

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Notre Dame. It will be the second straight away game for Miami after playing at North Carolina on Halloween, and the Fighting Irish likely will be Miami's only ranked opponent it faces during the regular season.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1)

Why they could be here: With Saturday's win at Indiana, the Buckeyes have two top-25 road wins against Big Ten opponents and have won five straight since their Week 2 loss at Texas. With Texas losing to Florida and earning its second loss, the committee would no longer use the Longhorns' head-to-head win over the Buckeyes as a tiebreaker because their records are no longer comparable.

Why they could be lower: Ohio State was fortunate that wide-open Indiana wide receiver Nick Marsh landed out of bounds on what would have been the game-winning touchdown with about a minute left in Saturday's game. It was a gritty victory for Ohio State, but partly because the Buckeyes made it difficult for themselves. Quarterback Julian Sayin threw two interceptions for the second straight week. Ohio State's collapse against now-two-loss Texas also looks worse in retrospect. Miami has been more impressive on film -- and is undefeated -- but against a weaker schedule.

Need to know: The selection committee considers injuries to key players, and Sayin will be out "several weeks" with an injury he suffered in the win against Indiana, coach Ryan Day said after the game. Ohio State has a bye week before traveling to USC to play on Halloween. With Sayin sidelined, the Buckeyes turned to true freshman Luke Fahey in the fourth quarter, and he threw two incomplete passes but the defense helped preserve Ohio State's precarious 19-15 lead. While the committee members will understand the situation, they also will watch to see if Ohio State looks like a playoff contender with Fahey in the lineup.