Democrats have an identity crisis - it won't be an easy fix

James Stevens calls himself a democratic socialist. The 24-year-old film student is the type of Democrat who recalls watching the provocative left-wing internet commentator Hasan Piker six years ago, "before he became relevant in politics". Last year, James flew up from his home in Georgia to New York City to canvass for Zohran Mamdani's mayoral campaign.

His mother, Tamara, 56, is a loyal Democrat too. But of a different ilk. She grew up Republican then switched to the Democratic Party after seeing Barack Obama on Oprah. These days, she's a loyal party woman, championing reproductive rights, attending campaign rallies and donating to local candidates.

Both mother and son want Democrats to win control of Congress at Tuesday's midterm elections, but they don't entirely agree on what they want their Democratic Party to be.

"I'm very sick of how compromising Democrats are to Republican policies that don't benefit a large group of people," James told me, as his mother looked on. "There needs to be a bold vision for the Democrats," he says, arguing that the party should adopt policies affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), a left-wing splinter group. In his view, that means anti-Zionism, getting corporate money out of politics, and government-run free healthcare.

The conventional wisdom in Washington is that Democrats are well-positioned to take control of the House, and possibly even the Senate, after the vote next week.

Underlying conditions are in Democrats' favour – Republican US President Donald Trump's approval rating is at a record low for a president heading into a midterm, comparable to George W Bush in his final term in 2006; the Iran war still isn't over and it's proving unpopular with American voters; and this has led to higher gas prices, which are frustrating an electorate that is already worried about the cost of living. Traditionally, the midterms are a referendum on a sitting president. In 18 of the last 20 US midterm elections, the party in power has lost seats in the House.

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And yet despite those circumstances, the Democratic Party is also unpopular nationwide. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows the American public sees the Democrats as only marginally better than the Republicans. Recent polls show the Democratic Party still has a net unfavourability rating among Americans. Political analysts say that if the Republicans manage to buck the trend and survive these midterms, one key reason is that the Democratic Party (or the Democratic brand) is disliked by a majority of American voters too.

Behind the headlines of which party or which candidates win this Tuesday, there's also a story this election season about Democratic identity. This is a fight between institutionalists and reformists, of people who want incremental change and those who demand root-and-branch transformation. The question is, who will win out in the long run?

I've covered every national US election in the past dozen years and this is an unusual one. When I was out interviewing voters ahead of the 2018 midterms during Donald Trump's first term, I was struck by how united many Democratic voters were in their opposition to the president. This time, I've noticed that under the facade of unity, there's a brewing fight.

There are persistent questions about what the Democratic Party stands for, and these divides erupted during the primaries this midterm cycle. "The identity of the party is pretty cloudy," said Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a centre-right think tank. "It's all centred on reaction to the Trump administration and taking advantage of what is a thermostatic reaction against the administration... Beyond that, there's all these different factions in the party."

Part of the reason for this Democratic infighting is that the party never had a chance to have this fight during the 2024 presidential race, with the sudden departure of Joe Biden months before the election and nomination of Kamala Harris.

Analysts agree that if Democrats make big wins on election night, it still won't answer deeper, unresolved questions as they try to keep their big tent together to corral votes in Congress or eye the 2028 presidency.