Democrats see the stars aligning in Iowa - Politico

Iowa democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand speaks to the media after voting on primary Election Day, June 2, 2026, in Des Moines, Iowa. | Bryon Houlgrave/AP

For Iowa Democrats, a decade-long drought may finally be coming to an end.

The economic turmoil of the past year-and-a-half has been felt acutely in Iowa, where the agriculture-heavy economy has been jolted by tariffs. Medicaid cuts in last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act are ransacking rural health facilities, Democrats say, and several clinics in the state have closed. And the Iran war has spiked prices for fertilizer and diesel — critical supplies for the farm state.

That’s all creating a dynamic that Democrats feel will propel voters their way in the midterms, giving them a shot at their first major statewide wins since the Obama era. And they’re confident that their candidates atop the ticket — a slate that was officially nominated in Tuesday’s primaries — will help carry Democrats in down ballot races.

“You go into these rural communities, the word that I hear the most is ‘betrayal,’” Josh Turek, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, told POLITICO in an interview late Tuesday night after winning his primary. “We’re leading the nation in farm foreclosures. Farm suicide rates skyrocketing. And so the Trump signs and Trump flags are coming down, because they say we’ve been betrayed.”

Even some Republicans are sounding the alarm.

“The reality is, if voters do not trust Republican elected officials and candidates with the future of the economy, they’re not going to vote for them this November,” said Drew Klein, an Iowa-based regional vice president of Americans for Prosperity. “That is what is going to decide the election in November.”

Democrats see economic issues providing an opening across rural America. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently commissioned polling they say shows economic dissatisfaction among rural voters, according to a memo shared first with POLITICO.

Both the Senate and governor’s seats are open in Iowa at the same time for the first time since 1968, and Democrats think they have a slate of nominees who could meet the moment.

“We’re excited about it, and this is probably the first time in a long, long time when I can say that,” said Patty Judge, a Democrat who served as Iowa agriculture secretary and was Democrats’ last lieutenant governor before her ticket lost in 2010.

Iowa Democrats and DCCC are seriously targeting three of the state’s four House seats as well — seats they swept in the last wave election, in 2018.

Turek, a Paralympic gold medalist, cruised to victory Tuesday in the primary for U.S. Senate, a victory for national Democrats who backed his campaign and will be eager to support him in November. He’ll run statewide with Rob Sand, the current state auditor and rising star within the party, who ran unopposed in the gubernatorial primary.

But winning in Iowa will still be difficult and require Democrats to overcome a party brand that has become toxic in most rural corners of the country. No Democrat in the state has been elected governor since 2006, to the U.S. Senate since 2008 and to the U.S House since 2020. The last time the state went blue at the presidential level was 2012.

Republicans admit the environment isn’t great — but argue that Democrats will still fall short given how far right the state has shifted in the Trump era.

“I think it’s a huge hill to climb for Dems,” said David Kochel, a longtime Republican strategist who has done extensive work in the state. “Yes, a lot of things are breaking towards them, but we’re talking about a state where Trump won by 13.”

“Democrats turned their backs on Iowa years ago, and their candidates prove they still haven’t learned a thing,” said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Emily Tuttle. “Iowans want representatives who will fight for them, not lecture them or look down on them. That’s why Republicans are positioned to win across Iowa this November.”

Democrats’ optimism starts atop the ticket: Sand will take on Republican Zach Lahn, who won his primary with less than 40 percent of the vote over Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa).