Trump's nuclear deal with Saudis jettisons longstanding US demands - BBC

The Trump administration's nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia reversed a years-long stance toward a key Middle East ally.

Past US presidents insisted that Saudi Arabia normalise relations with Israel in exchange for receiving American nuclear technology for civilian energy programmes.

According to reports of the deal's contents, President Donald Trump gave Saudi Arabia what it wanted without extracting concessions for Israel in return - and over objections from critics who argued that it could spark a nuclear arms race in the region.

On Thursday he said in a social media post that the nuclear pact was conditioned on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, a series of deals reached in his first term that normalised relations between Israel and several other Gulf states.

But it was not immediately clear if that was stipulated in the text of the deal - which has not been released - or that Saudi Arabia had agreed to that condition, or would be forced to join the accords.

The deal appears to be the latest example of Trump jettisoning the traditional American approach to the Middle East, which centred on Israel and finding a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

In his second term Trump has focused primarily on strengthening America's economic influence to compete with China and other rivals. Analysts said the nuclear pact with Saudi Arabia sent a signal that the US wants to keep regional allies in the fold even if it means angering Israel in the process.

"Countries in the Middle East want to develop their nuclear infrastructure and they're going to do it even if the US is not involved. Washington at this point is recognising that," said Yusuf Can, a Middle East expert at consulting firm Amena Strategies. With this nuclear deal, he added, "the US is basically saying you don't have to work with China. You can work with us".

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Transactional foreign policy has been a hallmark of Trump's second term. The US has ratcheted up economic competition with adversaries like China and Russia in the Arctic and other parts of the world since Trump returned to office vowing to revive his "America First" approach to global affairs.

But signing a nuclear pact in the Middle East is an especially bold move that will raise tensions in a volatile region where the US is at war with Iran.

It represents a major victory for Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has sought a nuclear agreement with the US for years as part of a broader campaign to strengthen relations with the West.

The crown prince, known as MBS, said in 2018 that if Iran develops nuclear weapons then Saudi Arabia should be allowed to as well.

Details of the deal were not immediately released by the administration, but the pact reportedly does not include strict enforcement measures to block Saudi Arabia from developing a military nuclear programme in the future.

In that respect it differs from a 2009 nuclear cooperation agreement struck by the US and the United Arab Emirates which included strict inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Another key difference that critics of the Saudi deal are pointing to is that it reportedly allows them to enrich uranium themselves on their own soil.

Even if Saudi Arabia doesn't race to develop nuclear weapons right away, the potential ability to do so could still give the country a powerful deterrent force in the region, analysts said.

"It certainly helps lay the groundwork for nuclear weapons in the future," said Imran Bayoumi, a resident fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank and former policy adviser at the US Defence Department.

The agreement will allow Saudi Arabia to diversify its energy sector and use nuclear power to meet rising electricity demands, energy experts said. Having nuclear power could eventually lessen Saudi Arabia's reliance on oil, insulating it from volatilities in the global oil market, said Christopher Russo, an energy expert at the consulting firm Charles River Associates.

"Oil can be disrupted. You can bomb oil fields. Oil tankers can be stuck somewhere, as we're seeing right now" in the Strait of Hormuz, Russo said. "Nuclear power is pretty self-contained."

Saudi Arabia won't reap the economic rewards anytime soon. It will likely take a decade if not longer for the country to build and open new nuclear power plants.