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Who is frontrunner to be the UK's next chancellor?

From BBC News via USVI News: Andy Burnham will be moving into Downing Street next week, and a question remains over who will be his neighbour in Number 11.

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Andy Burnham will be moving in to Downing Street on Monday, as he becomes the next UK prime minister following the resignation of Sir Keir Starmer.

But who will live next door in Number 11 as chancellor?

Officially, Burnham's team says no decision has been taken and cabinet position announcements won't be made until Monday.

But that hasn't stopped speculation about who may take on the top Treasury role - and attempts at influencing Burnham's choice in chancellor.

Whoever it is, that person will face quite the in-tray – high debt, low growth, welfare reform, defence spending, and the economic fallout from the US-Israel war with Iran to name a few issues.

Here are the names of those believed to be in the running for the job - and what they could mean for your finances.

There has been increasing talk of the current home secretary becoming chancellor.

The BBC has been told there are "live discussions" about putting Mahmood into Number 11, while the Financial Times, external is reporting it as a certainty based on three sources close to Burnham.

While she does not have an economics background, she is a senior minister on Labour's right and it may be felt that she could reassure financial markets and smooth the transition to a Burnham government.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said the markets were already rallying in relief to reports that Mahmood would become chancellor, with the pound up about 1% against the US dollar this week.

"It tells us two things about Andy Burnham's government: firstly, the market trusts Mahmood to take a sensible approach to economic policy, and to tackle the hard questions of welfare spending, secondly, Burnham is willing to have those to the right of the Labour party in his cabinet in key economic roles," Brooks said.

However, according to separate reports from the Press Association, Mahmood is keen to remain as home secretary and see through changes she has brought in to the asylum system.

The idea of Mahmood as chancellor is causing upset on the left of the party, according to The Times. The paper said those people would much prefer Ed Miliband in the role.

In late June, he was the bookmakers' strong favourite for the number two job in British politics, with the former Labour party leader politically closer to Burnham than other rivals.

However, opinions differ on whether former Treasury adviser Miliband would receive the backing of the financial markets, which the government depends on to lend money.

Some see Miliband as an inflation risk, believing his drive for net zero as energy secretary as partly responsible for the UK's high energy prices compared to other countries.

Analysts say that reputation, whether accurate or not, could affect how bond markets react to his time as chancellor.

In recent days, several MPs close to Burnham - who have no issues with the energy secretary - believe the likelihood of appointing Miliband has significantly lessened.

But others close to Miliband believe it was both highly possible he would become chancellor, and something that was still wanted.

Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper could be a surprise compromise pick, and is seen as a potential for chancellor.

She has years of experience in government, serving as chief secretary to the Treasury under Gordon Brown, and sits somewhere in between Miliband and McFadden or Streeting politically.

Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at financial services firm AJ Bell, calls her a "middle of the road" option but also "a bit more of an unknown".

Wes Streeting, a former contender for the Labour leadership, was the early favourite for chancellor, with suggestions that he could be awarded the job for coming out and backing Burnham and withdrawing his own ambitions.

However, economist and cross-bench peer Lord Jim O'Neill, who has been providing advice to Burnham, has warned against this approach.

Lord O'Neill told the BBC the advice he has given Burnham is to "figure out what his priorities are as prime minister before he picks a chancellor".

Though Burnham may appreciate Streeting's backing, the pair's politics differ - with Burnham seen to be inclined to spend more than Streeting.

Simon French, chief economist at consultancy Panmure Liberum, says Streeting is a "relatively market-friendly option" because of his pro-growth comments, but also a political risk because he might someday want to be prime minister.

This article is republished through the USVI News affiliate desk. Reporting, analysis, and viewpoints are those of the original publisher and do not necessarily reflect USVI News.

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