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Hurricane Season

Atlantic Weather Systems Intensify; Gulf of Mexico Preps for Potential Disturbances

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As the season advances, the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico face heightened weather activity, with several systems emerging on the radar. The National Hurricane Center advises residents and officials in potentially affected areas, especially those in the Caribbean region, to stay updated on these weather developments.

Detailed Insights:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic – System AL98: An expansive low-pressure zone, situated several hundred miles to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands, is showing increased signs of coming together. The associated showers and storms appear to be consolidating, suggesting favorable conditions for a tropical depression formation in the days ahead. Current trajectories indicate a west-northwest to northwest movement at an approximate pace of 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Notably, by the following week, climatic models hint at stronger upper-level winds, which may hinder its growth.

  • Likelihood of formation in 48 hours: Moderate at 50%.
  • Chance of formation over the next 7 days: Elevated at 70%.

Central Tropical Atlantic – System AL99: This elongated low-pressure trough, positioned more than a thousand miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is triggering sporadic showers and storms. The current climate suggests a slight edge for this system to evolve into a tropical depression soon. As for its movement, a west-northwestward trend ranging from 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic is expected. Nonetheless, forthcoming upper-level winds may deter its continuous development.

  • Formation probability for both 48-hour and 7-day: Moderate at 40%.

Proximity of the Lesser Antilles: Another trough of low pressure, stationed a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, is hinting at possible development. Over the forthcoming weekend and into next week, there’s a potential for some strengthening. It’s projected to move predominantly in a west-northwest direction, clocking speeds of 10 to 15 mph, crossing the Lesser Antilles and entering the northeastern Caribbean region.

  • Potential for formation in 48 hours: Low at 10%.
  • 7-day formation outlook: Minimal at 20%.

Western Front of the Gulf of Mexico: Stirrings north of Hispaniola have set the Gulf of Mexico on a cautious watch. Predictions point towards a broad low-pressure region establishing itself here by the early part of the next week. As it embarks on its westward course, this system may undergo slow evolution, aiming to touch the western fringe of the Gulf of Mexico by mid-week.

  • Probability of formation in 48 hours: Virtually 0%.
  • Chances over a week: Mild at 30%.

In light of these developments, it’s paramount for residents and local officials in the identified regions to maintain vigilance. Staying updated and ensuring necessary preparations are in place can aid in effectively managing potential outcomes.

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Hurricane Season

FEMA Urges Virgin Islands Residents to Update Emergency Plans as Hurricane Season Begins

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As the Atlantic hurricane season commences, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is urging U.S. Virgin Islands residents to brace for what is expected to be an above-normal season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted between 17 and 25 named storms for 2024, underscoring the importance of readiness in the region.

FEMA is stressing the necessity of updating emergency communication plans to enhance safety and reduce the stress associated with approaching tropical systems. It is crucial for residents to revisit and revise their plans, ensuring all family members are well-versed in the procedures to follow if a storm threatens the area.

FEMA’s key recommendations include:

  1. Plan Review and Update: Families should reassess their emergency plans, taking into account any changes over the past year. It’s essential that every member understands their role and the actions to take during an emergency.
  2. Communication Strategy: Designate a family member outside the territory as an emergency contact. This person can serve as a central point of communication for relatives and friends if local channels are disrupted.
  3. Accessible Information: FEMA provides an emergency communications plan template to document vital contact and medical information for each family member. This template is also available in Spanish, making it more accessible to a broader audience.

In addition to updating plans, FEMA advises residents to conduct practice drills. These drills help ensure that everyone knows how to communicate effectively and reunite if separated during a storm.

For more details and to access the emergency communications plan template, residents can visit FEMA’s website or contact the local emergency management office. Being prepared can significantly reduce the risks and anxiety associated with hurricane season in the Caribbean.

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Hurricane Season

Emergency Shelters Identified and Shelf-Stable Foods Procured as USVI Prepares for the Hurricane Season

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As the Virgin Islands government advances billion-dollar hurricane recovery projects initiated in 2017, residents brace for an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with forecasts predicting four to seven major hurricanes. Senator Kenneth Gittens convened a meeting on Wednesday with the Committee on Homeland Security, Justice, and Public Affairs to review preparedness plans. Daryl Jaschen, director of the V.I. Territorial Emergency Management Agency (VITEMA), emphasized the importance of proactive planning.

Reflecting on the 2017 hurricanes, Jaschen lamented past complacency among residents and urged serious preparation for the upcoming season. He highlighted the necessity of considering senior citizens, ensuring medication availability, and caring for pets. “We don’t want it, but we want to be prepared,” he stated.

A significant improvement in this year’s preparations is the prepositioning of FEMA-supplied shelf-stable water and meals, sufficient for ten days, within the territory. Unlike in 2017, when supplies were stored in Puerto Rico, these resources are now readily available. If necessary, food supplies will be distributed from various points of distribution (PODs) five days after a federal disaster declaration. Residents are advised to maintain a personal emergency stash for at least five days, as immediate distribution may not be possible.

VITEMA plans to operate two PODs per district, each capable of distributing up to 5,000 meals daily. These PODs will function until normal food supply chains are restored and ATMs are operational. Distribution sites will provide two meals and three liters of water per person per day.

The five-day lead time for distribution stems from the logistics of receiving and processing FEMA supplies. Jaschen warned residents not to expect immediate assistance post-storm, as it takes time to activate PODs. Road clearance is also a prerequisite for POD operations.

The exact locations for the PODs remain undecided, causing concern among legislators. Senator Gittens emphasized the need for pre-identified locations to facilitate easier access during emergencies. Jaschen responded that the final POD sites would be determined based on post-storm assessments.

The V.I. Department of Human Services (DHS) is also preparing for potential hurricane impacts. Community Affairs Coordinator Yvette Henry reported that DHS, with FEMA, the American Red Cross, and local partners, has inspected and identified several evacuation shelters. In St. Croix, the St. Croix Educational Complex and the David C. Canageta Recreational Complex are designated shelters. St. Thomas shelters include the Ivanna Eudora Kean High School’s gym and cafeteria and the Lockhart Elementary and Junior High School. St. John shelters are the Adrian Senior Center and the Gift Hill School. There is no listed shelter for Water Island for 2024.

DHS, along with the V.I. Department of Health, is ensuring shelters can meet the needs of vulnerable populations, including accommodations for service animals. DHS continues to identify additional shelters, with lawmakers urging the selection of easily accessible locations for all residents.

The V.I. Department of Public Works (DPW) is focused on stormwater management, tree pruning, sandbag distribution, route clearance, and infrastructure restoration. Assistant Labor Commissioner Rueben Jennings noted DPW’s readiness to assist in supply distribution if required. Lawmakers stressed the importance of drain maintenance to prevent flooding and debris blockage. DPW has begun assessing the stormwater drainage system and will continue these efforts throughout the hurricane season.

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Hurricane Season

DLCA Urges Price List Submissions Ahead of 2024 Hurricane Season

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As the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season commences, the Department of Licensing and Consumer Affairs (DLCA) is urging businesses in the U.S. Virgin Islands to submit their hurricane price lists by June 1. This measure aims to protect consumers from price gouging during emergencies and ensure essential supplies remain affordable and accessible.

DLCA Commissioner Nathalie Hodge underscored the significance of these submissions, which are required monthly until the season concludes on November 30. The regulation affects retailers, wholesalers, and providers of vital services such as food, water, medical products, and construction services. The initiative focuses on items critical for hurricane preparation and recovery.

Non-compliance with these regulations can result in fines up to $200 per item or service sold in violation of the law. Businesses can access a sample price list form on the DLCA website and submit their lists via email to [email protected].

This call for price list submissions follows a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast predicting an 85% chance of above-normal hurricane activity this year. The Climate Prediction Center anticipates 17 to 25 named storms, with 8 to 13 likely to become hurricanes, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes.

The heightened hurricane activity is linked to near-record warm ocean temperatures, La Niña conditions, and reduced wind shear, all of which contribute to a favorable environment for storm development. Additionally, a robust West African monsoon may enhance the strength and sustainability of storms crossing the Atlantic.

NOAA is enhancing its forecasting and communication capabilities to better serve the public during hurricane threats. New technologies and updated operational strategies will be employed, including expanded Spanish language advisories, an experimental inland storm threat graphic, and advanced data collection tools like Saildrones.

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