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Hurricane Season

Atlantic Weather Systems Intensify; Gulf of Mexico Preps for Potential Disturbances



As the season advances, the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico face heightened weather activity, with several systems emerging on the radar. The National Hurricane Center advises residents and officials in potentially affected areas, especially those in the Caribbean region, to stay updated on these weather developments.

Detailed Insights:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic – System AL98: An expansive low-pressure zone, situated several hundred miles to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands, is showing increased signs of coming together. The associated showers and storms appear to be consolidating, suggesting favorable conditions for a tropical depression formation in the days ahead. Current trajectories indicate a west-northwest to northwest movement at an approximate pace of 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Notably, by the following week, climatic models hint at stronger upper-level winds, which may hinder its growth.

  • Likelihood of formation in 48 hours: Moderate at 50%.
  • Chance of formation over the next 7 days: Elevated at 70%.

Central Tropical Atlantic – System AL99: This elongated low-pressure trough, positioned more than a thousand miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is triggering sporadic showers and storms. The current climate suggests a slight edge for this system to evolve into a tropical depression soon. As for its movement, a west-northwestward trend ranging from 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic is expected. Nonetheless, forthcoming upper-level winds may deter its continuous development.

  • Formation probability for both 48-hour and 7-day: Moderate at 40%.

Proximity of the Lesser Antilles: Another trough of low pressure, stationed a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, is hinting at possible development. Over the forthcoming weekend and into next week, there’s a potential for some strengthening. It’s projected to move predominantly in a west-northwest direction, clocking speeds of 10 to 15 mph, crossing the Lesser Antilles and entering the northeastern Caribbean region.

  • Potential for formation in 48 hours: Low at 10%.
  • 7-day formation outlook: Minimal at 20%.

Western Front of the Gulf of Mexico: Stirrings north of Hispaniola have set the Gulf of Mexico on a cautious watch. Predictions point towards a broad low-pressure region establishing itself here by the early part of the next week. As it embarks on its westward course, this system may undergo slow evolution, aiming to touch the western fringe of the Gulf of Mexico by mid-week.

  • Probability of formation in 48 hours: Virtually 0%.
  • Chances over a week: Mild at 30%.

In light of these developments, it’s paramount for residents and local officials in the identified regions to maintain vigilance. Staying updated and ensuring necessary preparations are in place can aid in effectively managing potential outcomes.

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Hurricane Season

Tropical Storm Tammy Picks Up Momentum, Nears Leeward Islands



The Miami-based National Hurricane Center has updated its advisory on Tropical Storm Tammy, indicating an anticipated intensification as it nears the Leeward Islands. The onset of potential tropical storm conditions, along with substantial rainfall, is forecasted to begin this Friday.

As recorded at 5:00 a.m. AST, the storm was positioned about 480 miles east-southeast of Guadeloupe, advancing at a pace of 17 mph westwards. Meteorological predictions suggest a veer towards the west-northwest by this evening, followed by a further swerve to the northwest between Friday evening and Saturday. Given this trajectory, the storm’s core is likely to skirt or traverse the Leeward Islands during this timeframe.

At present, Tammy exhibits sustained winds nearing 40 mph, with prospects of even mightier gusts. Over the ensuing days, the storm is poised to amplify its strength, potentially verging on hurricane intensity as the weekend concludes. Winds emanating from the tropical storm span out to about 140 miles from its core, accompanied by a central pressure reading of 1006 mb.

Watches and Alerts: The Antiguan government has disseminated a Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. This watch extends to Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and Guadeloupe as well. A watch signifies that the delineated regions might experience tropical storm conditions typically within the forthcoming 48 hours. The advisory also underscores the likelihood of additional alerts being proclaimed later today.

Land Perils: In line with the critical messages released for Tammy, tropical storm conditions are anticipated to kickstart in the watch zones from Friday. The rainfall quota through Saturday night is estimated between 3 to 6 inches, albeit certain areas, particularly the northern Windward and the Leeward Islands, might be on the receiving end of up to 10 inches. The British and U.S. Virgin Islands, along with eastern Puerto Rico, are foreseen to accumulate rainfall tallies between 1 to 2 inches, peaking at 4 inches. Such precipitation volumes may instigate isolated flash and urban flooding, coupled with a potential for mudslides in elevated terrains.

Moreover, the storm-induced swells are predicted to impinge on parts of the Lesser Antilles later today, potentially spawning hazardous surf conditions and rip currents.

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Hurricane Season

Developing Weather System to Affect Lesser Antilles by Friday: Vigilance Urged



An alert has been relayed by the National Hurricane Center regarding a burgeoning weather system in the Tropical Atlantic.

As of Wednesday, 2:00 a.m., a notable low pressure area, tagged as Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94), was positioned approximately 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. This system has continually displayed escalating signs of organization, with current environmental conditions anticipated to facilitate its ongoing development.

As the system propels on a west to west-northwestward course across the central and western tropical Atlantic, there’s a high likelihood it will mature into a tropical depression within the forthcoming day or so.

Individuals and stakeholders in the Lesser Antilles are emphatically advised to keep a close watch on this system’s progression. Independent of its developmental stage, the system has the capacity to bring forth gusty winds, substantial rainfall, and subsequent flooding to regions of the Lesser Antilles by Friday.

The odds of the system’s emergence within the next 48 hours are pegged at a robust 80 percent, a probability that remains elevated through the 7-day outlook.

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Hurricane Season

Potential Tropical Development on the Horizon: Caribbean Braces for Impact, with a Tropical Depression Anticipated Soon



As the eyes of many remain on the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for its continuous updates on Tropical Storm Nigel, a growing concern emerges for a tropical wave predicted to originate from the west coast of Africa. With the forecast showing a robust 70% probability of evolving over the coming week, the system might bring repercussions to the Caribbean, journeying westward across the expansive eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

The NHC, with its vigilant surveillance, is currently assessing multiple meteorological patterns spanning the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. Although Tropical Storm Nigel is on the radar, its location over the central subtropical Atlantic indicates no pressing threats to either the U.S. mainland or the neighboring Caribbean territories.

Early indicators suggest that the tropical wave, predicted to roll off the African coast by midweek, carries a strong potential for development. Anticipated environmental conditions appear favorable for its gradual evolution, steering the wave towards metamorphosing into a tropical depression by the week’s end or soon after. Preliminary estimates by the NHC postulate a near-negligible chance of formation in the immediate 48-hour frame but elevate that probability to a noteworthy 70% in the week ahead. Given its current trajectory, Caribbean territories should maintain heightened alertness for any ensuing impacts.

Parallel to this, the NHC’s gaze is fixed on an anticipated non-tropical low-pressure zone, set to appear near the U.S. southeastern coastline within the week. There’s a potential for this system to adopt some subtropical traits over the weekend, contingent on its offshore activities. Presently, the odds for its formation remain modest: almost nil for the upcoming 48 hours but rising to a 30% chance within the week.

As the annual hurricane season unfolds in all its might, it’s imperative for dwellers of the Caribbean and those residing along the southeastern coast of the U.S. to stay abreast of meteorological updates. Establishing emergency preparedness kits is a prudent move. The NHC assures consistent monitoring of these meteorological patterns and pledges timely updates as fresh data surfaces.

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