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Weather Service Issues Flood Warnings for USVI and Puerto Rico

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The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued an alert for heavy rain and potential flooding affecting Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, starting Wednesday.

Forecasts indicate that a combination of an upper-level trough and a developing surface low-pressure system will bring substantial moisture to the region, increasing the likelihood of flooding as the week progresses.

The anticipated weather pattern includes multiple rain episodes, beginning with showers arriving from the Caribbean Sea into the Virgin Islands and spreading across southern and eastern Puerto Rico on Wednesday. A second wave of rain is expected on Thursday, with lingering effects potentially extending into Friday.

Meteorologists warn that sustained periods of moderate to heavy rainfall could elevate the risks of river overflows, flash floods, and mudslides. Residents and visitors, particularly those in flood-prone areas, are advised to stay informed with weather updates and prepare for swiftly changing conditions.

This moisture-laden system is predicted to persist through at least late Saturday, maintaining the heightened risk of flooding throughout the period.

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Weather

NOAA Predicts Active 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has projected a notably active Atlantic hurricane season for 2024, with an 85% likelihood of above-normal activity. According to the Climate Prediction Center, the forecast anticipates 17 to 25 named storms, of which 8 to 13 may develop into hurricanes, including 4 to 7 reaching major hurricane strength. This prediction reflects a 70% confidence level from NOAA’s forecasters, who attribute the increased activity to near-record warm ocean temperatures, the onset of La Nina conditions, and reduced wind shear.

The official hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. As a strong El Nino period concludes, NOAA scientists anticipate a swift transition to La Nina, which is conducive to hurricane formation due to lower wind shear in the Atlantic. Additionally, an above-normal West African monsoon season could contribute to stronger and longer-lasting Atlantic storms.

Rising ocean temperatures and melting ice, leading to higher sea levels, exacerbate the potential impact of hurricanes by increasing storm surge risks. In response to the escalating threat, NOAA is enhancing its communication and forecasting capabilities. Planned improvements include expanded advisories in Spanish, a new experimental forecast cone graphic to depict inland storm threats, and the integration of new models to better predict storm intensification.

Technological advancements such as Saildrones and underwater gliders will be deployed to improve storm tracking and intensity predictions. These enhancements are supported by upgrades to NOAA’s observational infrastructure, providing detailed and real-time data essential for accurate forecasting.

NOAA emphasizes the importance of public preparedness, urging residents in hurricane-prone areas to stay informed through reliable sources like hurricanes.gov and social media platforms. FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks also stresses the need for immediate readiness, highlighting the unpredictable nature of severe weather and its widespread impacts.

NOAA’s seasonal outlook forms part of a broader strategy to boost public awareness and preparedness ahead of potential hurricane landfalls. The Climate Prediction Center plans to provide an updated outlook in early August, incorporating the latest data and predictive models to refine forecasts as the peak hurricane season approaches.

In summary, with an anticipated increase in hurricane activity for the 2024 Atlantic season, NOAA and FEMA underscore the vital importance of preparation and advanced forecasting to mitigate impacts and enhance public safety.

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Elevated Health Risks Prompt Advisory Against Using Coastal Waters During Storms

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With forecasts predicting heavy rainfall and potential flooding, the Virgin Islands Department of Planning and Natural Resources (DPNR) has issued an advisory for the public to avoid using coastal waters across the territory until further notice.

Parents are specifically urged to keep children away from beaches affected by storm water and from areas with manholes or flooding. The advisory highlights the elevated health risks due to increased concentrations of bacteria in storm water runoff, which can include puddles, ghuts, and drainage basins that may also carry harmful contaminants and pollutants.

DPNR has committed to ongoing monitoring of the affected areas and waters to ensure public safety.

Contractors, developers, and home builders are reminded to implement and maintain enhanced erosion and sediment control measures at disturbed properties. The recommended practices include:

  • Preservation of natural vegetation
  • Drainage swales and diversions
  • Temporary and permanent seeding
  • Soil sealers and binders
  • Erosion control mats
  • Soil retaining walls
  • Proper construction entrances and exits
  • Silt fencing
  • Sediment traps
  • Mulches, mats, and geotextiles

Additionally, all construction materials and equipment should be secured or removed to prevent them from becoming airborne hazards during storms.

For reporting areas of concern, contact the Division of Environmental Protection Earth Change Program at (340) 774-3320 or (340) 773-1082.

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USVI and Puerto Rico to Experience Increased Rainfall Late May Through Early June

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The National Weather Service in San Juan anticipates an elevated likelihood of increased rainfall for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico from May 22 to June 4. During this period, the probability of receiving rainfall above the seasonal average is expected to surpass 50%, with certain locales facing even higher chances, exceeding 65% and reaching up to 80%.

Despite the forecast suggesting a particularly moist stretch ahead, the National Weather Service reassures that this does not inherently signal a severe risk of extensive flooding. Nevertheless, it is essential for residents and governing bodies to revisit and refine their strategies for coping with potential excessive rainfall and flood scenarios.

This forecast is part of the broader insights provided by the Climate Prediction Center, which delivers weekly updates based on a seven-day observational cycle. These updates are crucial for preparing and mitigating impacts in U.S.-affiliated regions.

Detailed Rainfall Projections:

  • May 22 – May 28, 2024
    • Probability of above-normal rainfall:
      • More than 50%
      • More than 65%
      • Up to 80%
  • May 29 – June 4, 2024
    • Probability of above-normal rainfall:
      • More than 50%
      • More than 65%
      • Up to 80%
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