NOAA Predicts Active 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has projected a notably active Atlantic hurricane season for 2024, with an 85% likelihood of above-normal activity. According to the Climate Prediction Center, the forecast anticipates 17 to 25 named storms, of which 8 to 13 may develop into hurricanes, including 4 to 7 reaching major hurricane strength. This prediction reflects a 70% confidence level from NOAA’s forecasters, who attribute the increased activity to near-record warm ocean temperatures, the onset of La Nina conditions, and reduced wind shear.

The official hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. As a strong El Nino period concludes, NOAA scientists anticipate a swift transition to La Nina, which is conducive to hurricane formation due to lower wind shear in the Atlantic. Additionally, an above-normal West African monsoon season could contribute to stronger and longer-lasting Atlantic storms.

Rising ocean temperatures and melting ice, leading to higher sea levels, exacerbate the potential impact of hurricanes by increasing storm surge risks. In response to the escalating threat, NOAA is enhancing its communication and forecasting capabilities. Planned improvements include expanded advisories in Spanish, a new experimental forecast cone graphic to depict inland storm threats, and the integration of new models to better predict storm intensification.

Technological advancements such as Saildrones and underwater gliders will be deployed to improve storm tracking and intensity predictions. These enhancements are supported by upgrades to NOAA’s observational infrastructure, providing detailed and real-time data essential for accurate forecasting.

NOAA emphasizes the importance of public preparedness, urging residents in hurricane-prone areas to stay informed through reliable sources like hurricanes.gov and social media platforms. FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks also stresses the need for immediate readiness, highlighting the unpredictable nature of severe weather and its widespread impacts.

NOAA’s seasonal outlook forms part of a broader strategy to boost public awareness and preparedness ahead of potential hurricane landfalls. The Climate Prediction Center plans to provide an updated outlook in early August, incorporating the latest data and predictive models to refine forecasts as the peak hurricane season approaches.

In summary, with an anticipated increase in hurricane activity for the 2024 Atlantic season, NOAA and FEMA underscore the vital importance of preparation and advanced forecasting to mitigate impacts and enhance public safety.