The National Weather Service in San Juan anticipates an elevated likelihood of increased rainfall for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico from May 22 to June 4. During this period, the probability of receiving rainfall above the seasonal average is expected to surpass 50%, with certain locales facing even higher chances, exceeding 65% and reaching up to 80%.

Despite the forecast suggesting a particularly moist stretch ahead, the National Weather Service reassures that this does not inherently signal a severe risk of extensive flooding. Nevertheless, it is essential for residents and governing bodies to revisit and refine their strategies for coping with potential excessive rainfall and flood scenarios.

This forecast is part of the broader insights provided by the Climate Prediction Center, which delivers weekly updates based on a seven-day observational cycle. These updates are crucial for preparing and mitigating impacts in U.S.-affiliated regions.

Detailed Rainfall Projections:

• May 22 – May 28, 2024
  • Probability of above-normal rainfall:
    • More than 50%
    • More than 65%
    • Up to 80%
• May 29 – June 4, 2024
  • Probability of above-normal rainfall:
    • More than 50%
    • More than 65%
    • Up to 80%

The National Weather Service has sounded the alarm for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, warning of coastal and marine dangers set to impact the areas from April 9 to April 13. The advisories underscore the risks of tumultuous seas and vigorous winds that could challenge the safety of those on small vessels and individuals planning to visit the beaches.

During the interval from Tuesday to Friday, the seas are anticipated to swell to heights of 8 feet, with the force of the waves reaching similar peaks. Winds are expected to surge, blowing steadily at speeds of 15 to 20 knots and gusting up to 30 knots. A marginal easing is predicted by Saturday, with sea levels possibly reducing to 7 feet and wave heights to 5 feet, while winds could maintain their intensity but with gusts slightly decreasing to 25 knots.

The current maritime forecast has initiated advisories for hazardous seas for small crafts, which could extend over the week, alongside a pronounced warning of high-risk rip currents. These currents are deemed perilous, capable of overpowering even adept swimmers and making it difficult for them to safely return to shore.

The tumultuous conditions are a result of northerly swells paired with moderate to locally intense trade winds. The anticipated hazardous seas are set to affect the offshore Atlantic waters by Tuesday evening, progressively reaching the northern coastal waters of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, encompassing the Mona and Anegada Passages, by Wednesday. Although advisories for small crafts are in effect until late Thursday night, the expectation is for these challenging conditions to linger into the weekend.

The onset of life-threatening rip currents is also forecasted, starting from northern Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening and expanding to western Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the northern reaches of the USVI by Wednesday. The high risk associated with these rip currents is projected to last until late Thursday night, with a continuation of the hazardous conditions likely through the weekend. Wednesday could also see heightened surf conditions.

The National Weather Service cautions against the potential repercussions, which span hazardous seas for small crafts, rip currents with the power to drag swimmers into deeper waters, perilous surf and swimming conditions, and the risk of localized coastal flooding and beach erosion. It’s crucial for both residents and visitors to heed these warnings, remain vigilant, and stay updated on weather developments throughout this period.

The National Weather Service has sounded the alarm on impending coastal and marine hazards targeting the offshore and coastal zones of northwestern Puerto Rico, the Mona and Anegada Passages, and reaching up to the northern territories of the US Virgin Islands.

With advisories effective through Tuesday morning, authorities warn of perilous seas for small crafts and caution against treacherous swimming conditions due to towering surf in these locales.

Commencing on April 1, Monday, maritime forecasts predict sea levels ranging between 6-8 feet with surf breaking at formidable heights of 7-11 feet. Although the sea’s fury is expected to diminish as the week unfolds, the initial onslaught poses significant dangers to smaller vessels. Mariners navigating the waters of Puerto Rico and the USVI are urged to proceed with caution, particularly during the afternoon when marine conditions are forecasted to peak in severity.

Wind predictions for the week ahead suggest velocities of 15 to 20 knots, with gusts surging to 25 knots on Monday. While a gradual reduction in wind strength is anticipated, the persistence of notable gusts will continue to stir the seas, justifying the advisories issued for these areas.

A critical point of concern is the elevated risk of life-threatening rip currents along Puerto Rico’s northern shore, stretching from Rincon to Ceiba, and extending through Culebra to the northern USVI. This peril is slated to persist into the midweek, with rip currents capable of dragging even the most adept swimmers out to sea, complicating efforts to return safely to shore. Although the threat level is expected to moderate by Thursday, April 4, conditions conducive to potentially fatal rip currents remain a possibility.

The genesis of these treacherous conditions can be traced back to northerly swells coupled with moderate to brisk trade winds. Despite the anticipated waning of the current northerly swell, the arrival of another long-period swell from the north by midweek could prolong the hazardous circumstances. The resultant effects include perilous seas for small crafts, along with dangerous conditions for surfing and swimming, not to mention the potential for localized coastal flooding and beach erosion affecting both Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

Authorities are imploring residents and visitors in the impacted regions of both Puerto Rico and the USVI to heed advisories and exercise utmost caution near water bodies.