Anticipating the Heat: A Forecast of Rising Temperatures in the Caribbean

The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) has recently issued a warning that the Caribbean region is set to face near-record temperatures over the next six months. According to CariCOF, temperatures are already above normal and are expected to climb further as we approach the peak of the Caribbean heat season in August and September. This surge in heat is predicted to affect virtually every aspect of daily life, with several impacts already being felt.

Public health experts are bracing for a significant uptick in heat-related symptoms, including a sharp rise in cases of heat illnesses, fainting, and hospitalizations. CariCOF has also highlighted an expected increase in biological hazards, such as gastrointestinal and mosquito-borne diseases, with dengue fever cases already on the rise in certain areas. Moreover, the extreme temperatures may lead to increased snacking or binge eating, contributing to various health issues. The agency also anticipates a surge in fatigue, irritability, and aggression as a result of prolonged exposure to high temperatures.

Economic sectors dependent on outdoor labor are poised for a challenging period. Livestock will require more cooling and ventilation to avoid heat stress, which could lead to stunted growth in chickens and a decrease in egg and dairy production. Crop productivity is expected to plummet, especially during peak heat hours from 10:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m., due to increased wilting.

The repercussions of above-average temperatures will also extend to marine life. Warmer ocean temperatures could lead to more frequent and severe hurricanes, alongside a decrease in fish harvests. Tourism, a key economic driver for the region, may suffer as excessive heat compromises the comfort and safety of visitors, leading to higher operational costs for accommodation providers and potential damage to coral reefs from bleaching.

Utility companies are likely to face heightened demand for electricity as both residents and businesses seek relief from the heat, possibly outstripping the efficiency of energy production and resulting in power outages. The heat is also expected to exacerbate water scarcity by increasing evaporation rates, further straining water supply systems.

Children and other vulnerable groups are among those who will be most affected. CariCOF notes that the heat may severely impact students’ ability to learn, recalling the protests last year by students in St. Croix against inadequate heat mitigation in schools. This led to adjustments in school schedules to minimize exposure to extreme temperatures—a measure that may need to be revisited this year.

As the Caribbean prepares to navigate another hot season, CariCOF’s forecast underscores the need for comprehensive strategies to mitigate the impacts of rising temperatures, echoing the adaptive measures taken in the past year.