Starmer 'shambles' hangs over Scotland and Wales elections - Laura Kuenssberg

"We're living the dream," a minister jokes.

Labour might have to rely on black humour over the next couple of weeks.

Each day brings a vast set of elections closer - local tests in England, and national ballots in Wales and Scotland - votes that another cabinet minister frets "will be a disaster".

We've been travelling around Wales this week, and Scotland last week, talking to the politicians vying for power, and the most important people of all - the public who'll make the choice on 7 May.

Just when Labour needs to be going hammer and tongs in a campaign, instead, almost every day brings fresh embarrassment to the prime minister over his decision to give Lord Mandelson one of the finest jobs in the land - our man in Washington.

Ructions in Whitehall. Rancour in Labour. A sense the government doesn't seem to have a grip. How big is the impact in Wales and Scotland of Sir Keir Starmer's woes?

"It's just so huge," says a senior Labour MP who's been knocking on voters' doors in recent days.

But these elections aren't remotely all about the government's recent horror show - we'll come to that in a second.

Voters will decide who makes important devolved decisions affecting the lives of millions of people - the kind of schools kids go to; the standard of the care patients receive when they are sick; even income tax rates.

Both the Labour administration in Cardiff and the SNP government in Edinburgh have been in charge for a remarkably long time - Labour since 1999, the SNP since 2007. It's perhaps not surprising, then, that voters we met in both countries expressed a similar level of disillusion with the status quo, frustration with a patchy track record on public services, and a sense devolution itself has not been all it was cracked up to be.

The two countries are poised to make very different decisions on what's next.

Wales saw red - but no more?

Labour's power over the Senedd is under threat

In Wales, it feels like Labour's time is more or less up. Canvassers report back praise on the doorstep for how Starmer held off from going to war with the US in Iran. But beyond that, the mood is bleak. One party source tells me "it's been a long time coming - the failures of the Welsh government keep coming up on the doors".

In the blazing spring sunshine on a Swansea rooftop, Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan tells me she'll keep "fighting and fighting", but accepts the election might be so tough for Labour that she could lose her seat. I don't remember covering another election where a party leader admitted their own perch in Parliament might disappear.

Don't underestimate how totemic a Labour loss would be if it happens. The party has been winning in Wales for a century. Plaid Cymru leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, and Dan Thomas of Reform are bouncing around the country, both believing they have a real shot at power. If either wins it would be the first time the post of first minister has been under their party's stripe - and the first time anyone other than a Labour politician has been in charge.

Be prepared for haggling after the results themselves, mind. A new proportional voting system in Wales makes it unlikely any one party will have a majority this time around, and it's hard to make accurate predictions.

First Minister of Wales Eluned Morgan is up against enthusiastic Plaid and Reform rivals

Plaid's ap Iorwerth says he'd happily run a minority government - a calculation that the Lib Dems, Greens and Labour would allow Plaid to form an administration, because they'd never dream of backing Reform.

Tory leader Darren Millar has suggested he'd be open to working with Reform, while Reform leader Thomas - who also seems to be relishing the campaign - insists he's campaigning to win a majority.

Let's see. There's also the possibility either Reform or Plaid wins the most seats, but the other wins the most votes. Under that headscratcher the party with the most seats would be the winner, theoretically, but you can already imagine the narrative of unfairness that the loser could spin.

The old certainties have gone and parties who were tiny outfits not so long ago stand to gain.

SNP confidence in Scotland – but can they be sure?

Several hundred miles away, the traditional order in Scotland was turned over in 2007, when the SNP stunned the political establishment by beating Labour in another of its spiritual homelands.